LA NINA IN FULL SWING

The latest discussion and forecast from the Climate Prediction Center came out today indicating no weakening or warming to La Nina. This cooling of Pacific water is indicated in the image showing abnormally cooler water in blue. The deviation is as great at 3 degrees C or about 6 degrees F in the dark blue colors off of South America and stretches to the International Date Line.

There is concern because a moderate to strong La Nina shifts the jet stream north of the Tennessee Vally moving rain producing storms systems around and north of the southeast. Florida and Georgia are in a drought and the lack of storm systems will worsen the situation. Warmer than normal conditions are typical over the winter during these situations.

Model forecasts indicate the trend will continue into the spring of 2008. More than half of these guidance tools indicate a moderate to strong La Nina through February. Thereafter a slight weakening is possible. The bottom line is we may save big on the heating bill this winter but crops will be impacted and the winter and spring wildfire season could be active.