CHANGING HOLIDAY WEATHER

The weather pattern will bring some rapid changes through the Thanksgiving weekend. Our unusually warm weather will last for Thanksgiving before chillier weather moves in Black Friday. Wednesday's high reached 78. Seven degrees above normal. Last Thanksgiving it was much colder. A year ago today 51 degrees for the high. It was just a degree warmer for Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving: Look for warm and cloudy conditions Thursday with rain after 2 pm through sunset.
This ridge will block significant long lasting cold. Notice how the blue lines over us are southwest. Jet stream winds parallel these height contours and southwest winds aloft at 18,000 ft above will provide a warm Thanksgiving.
The ridge over the Bahamas gives us a warm southerly breeze marked by the orange arrow. The black circle marks cold air dropping south.
Friday: Winds pick up around 5am with morning clouds. Temps will be around 55 degrees for sunrise shoppers. Temps will not warm up much through the day reaching the mid 60s with breezy NE winds. You can see how the cold drops south below by the surface wind vector perpendicular to the dashed thickness lines. A sign of cold air advection.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Milder upper 60s but still breezy and those winds could bring in some isolated showers in coastal locations of St. Johns and Flagler counties.

The ridge does not break down at 500mb Saturday evening so the cooler weather does not last. The orange arrows show how the cold flow cuts off and easterly winds take over as a ridge builds from Texas to the mid-Atlantic. This warm up lasts into early next week.
Sunday: Less breeze and warmer as a warm front lifts into Georgia. Temps climb into the upper 70s and could reach 80 by Monday.